• Indian Rupee (INR) trades water after gains on Wednesday
  • CPI, manufacturing & industrial production
  • US Dollar (USD) slips on signs inflation growth is slowing
  • US jobless claims in focus

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is ticking a few pips higher after losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.24% lower on Wednesday at 74.25. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.02% higher at 74.26.

The Rupee is trading in a muted fashion ahead of a slew of data due later today. Inflation will be the most closely watched. Expectations are for consumer price growth to cool slightly in June after surging to 6.26% in June, above the Reserve Bank of India’s 2%-6% comfort zone. Economists are expecting inflation to rise by 5.78% year on year in July.

Manufacturing and industrial production numbers will also be in focus. Expectations are for industrial production to rise 13.5% year on year. This is down from 29.3% in May. Although it’s important to acknowledge the favourable comparatives from May amid the first wave of COVID last year.

The US Dollar is a few pips higher versus the Rupee but trades a few pips lower versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades -0.04% at 92.89 extending losses from the previous session.

The US Dollar has fallen off its four-month high as inflation growth cools, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to taper support.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index stayed steady in July at 5.4%, ahead of the 5.2% forecast. However, on a monthly basis CPI rose just 0.5% against the 0.9% forecast. Core inflation, which doesn’t include more volatile items such as food and fuel also came in below forecasts.

The softer than forecast inflation adds support to the Fed’s belief that the spike in inflation is transitory and removes pressure from the US central bank to tighten monetary policy.

Attention will now turn to US jobless claims. Expectations are for initial claims to fall to 375,000 down from 385,000.