- Pound (GBP) supported by strong fundamentals
- UK economy re-opening next week
- Indian Rupee (INR) declines as RBI adopts more dovish stance
- Goldman Sachs downgrades India’s GDP outlook
The Pound Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate is extending gains for a second straight session. The pair settled +0.5% higher on Wednesday at 102.11 after hitting a 5 week high of 103.08. At 08:45 UTC, GBP/INR trades +0.2% at 102.33
The Pound has had a mixed week versus its major peers. However, the fundamental picture remains supportive of sterling.
The UK will continue to ease lockdown restrictions next week. All shops, hairdressers and outside hospitality will reopen. The swift vaccine rollout and falling covid cases have meant that the IMF also upgraded the UK economic growth forecast to 5.3% for 2021.
The economic outlook for the UK is stronger than that of its developed market peers, boosting the Pound making it the best performing G10 currency so far this year. Weakness earlier this week versus its major peers is most likely profit taking rather than owing to any fundamental change. change.
There is no high impacting UK data due to be released today. Sentiment is likely to be the main driving force for the Pound.
The Rupee experienced its largest single day fall in almost two years on Wednesday after the central bank mapped out plans for a huge bond buying programme.
Whilst the RBI kept interest rates on hold, its commitment towards government bond purchases boosted liquidity and inflation prospects undermining sentiment towards the currency. Such a dovish stance wasn’t expected by the markets.
The move by the Indian Central Bank comes as the resurgence of covid spirals out of control. The number of new daily infections topped 115,000 on Wednesday. More localized lockdown restrictions are being applied in an attempt to stem the wave.
Investment Bank Goldman Sachs expects the surge in covid cases and associated restrictions to have a negative impact on India’s economic recovery. Goldman Sachs down graded India’s GDP forecast for the April – June quarter to 31.3% YoY, down from 33.4%.
