- Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens, on the day and the week
- Moody’s predicts a 12% GDP growth in 2021
- US Dollar (USD) jumps post Fed announcement
- US bonds drop sharply boosting yields
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is heading lower on Friday after two straight days of gains. The pair settled +0.18% higher on Thursday at 72.69. At 14:45 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.2% at 72.52 towards the low of the day. The pair is on track to lose -0.2% across the week, its third consecutive week of losses.
Analysts at Moody’s rating agency have upwardly revised their economic growth forecasts for India. Moody’s now expects the Indian economy to grow by 12% in 2021, following a 7.1% contraction last year.
A stronger than forecast October – December quarter, has indicated that the economic has turned. This quarter saw GDP growth of 0.4%, following a -7.5% contraction in the previous quarter.
Analysts at the rating agency highlighted an improvement in both domestic and external demand since lockdown restrictions were lifted.
Reserves had hit a record high of $590,185 billion in the week ending 29th January 2021.
Separately, India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.739 billion to $582,037 billion in the week ending 12th March. This came following a decline in the previous week.
The US Dollar is falling versus the Rupee. However, the US Dollar is rising versus major peers. The US Dollar Index which gauges the greenback versus a basket of 6 majors, trades +0.3% at 92.12 at the time of writing, extending gains from the previous session.
The US Dollar surged higher, tracing bond yields northwards after the US Federal Reserve announced that it would close a loophole in banking regulation.
The Fed said that as from the end of this month banks will have to count their treasury bonds and cash towards their Supplementary Leverage Ratio. This wasn’t the case through the pandemic. Some analysts suggest that this move could affect banks’ willingness to hold treasuries.
Following the announcement, bonds tanked lower boosting yields and the US Dollar.
