- Pound (GBP) lifted by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey
- Declining covid numbers underpin the currency
- Euro (EUR) under pressure from stronger USD
- Data releases include German trade balance, EZ Q4 GDP
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is ticking a few pips higher in early trade after a solid run in the previous session. The pair rallied 0.5% on Monday, settling at €1.1669 at the high of the day. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.02% at €1.1673.
The Pound was pushed higher by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on Monday, who signaled some concern over the possibility of rising inflation as the UK recovers from the covid pandemic. Andrew Bailey commented that the risks are increasingly two sided. Although Andrew Bailey confirmed that the central bank would need to see a sustained move in inflation over 2% before hiking rates.
The market no longer expects the BoE to use negative rates which had been a concern up until recently. Instead, expectations are for a rate hike to come in 2022.
With the UK economy reopening and covid numbers continuing to fall the outlook for the inflation appears to be picking up and the Pound remains supported.
The number of new covid cases in the UK fell to the lowest level since last September. Government data revealed that 4,712 people tested positive for Covid 19. The data also revealed that there were 64 deaths.
On the YK economic calendar British Retail Consortium like for like sales for February could make for pretty grim reading given the lockdown conditions.
The Euro was out of favour in the previous session mainly owing to US Dollar strength as the greenback traced bond yields higher.
Data was a mixed bag. On the one hand, German industrial production came in significantly lower than forecast declining -2.5% month on month in January, well down from the 0.2% increase forecast. However, Eurozone investor sentiment jumped unexpectedly higher in March to 5, from -0.2 in February.
Looking ahead there is plenty of data to including German trade figures, Eurozone unemployment numbers and the 3rd revision of the fourth quarter GDP.