- Pound (GBP) slumps as Brexit deadline set for Sunday
- UK PM & EC President failed to bridge the differences
- Euro (EUR) steady ahead of the ECB rate announcement
- Dovish move on QE expected
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is declining on Thursday, paring gains from the previous session. The pair settled on Wednesday +0.5% at €1.1087 after easing back from a high of €1.1131 in another volatile session. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.3% at €1.10.45.
The Pound is heading lower after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set Sunday as a final deadline for Brexit trade talk negotiations after failing to bridge the gap on the remaining differences themselves. There won’t be an agreement to present to the EU Summit which starts today.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that a no trade deal Brexit could cause more damage to the UK economy than Covid.
The Euro has remained broadly resilient versus its major peers in recent sessions ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement at 12:45 GMT today. Expectations are high after ECB President Christine Lagarde as good as confirmed monetary policy easing in December back in the October meeting.
The ECB are expected to add a further €500 billion to its QE programme and more very generous loans to banks as the economy stumbles amid rising covid cases and tighter lockdown restrictions. However, these moves are pretty much priced in so it will take more from the ECB to drag the value of the Euro lower.
A strong Euro, particularly against the US Dollar is creating a headache for the ECB and the low inflation in the block.
The ECB would need to over deliver by adding around €750 billion in QE or a rate cut if they wanted to pull the value of the Euro lower. Yet recent commentary from the central bank suggests that this isn’t on the cards for today’s meeting