indian-rupee-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) moves a few pips lower
  • Analysts forecast upwardly revised contraction 6% – 8%
  • US Dollar (USD) trends lower versus major peer on vaccine optimism
  • Federal Reserve could easy policy next month

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is edging marginally higher at the start of the new week, after booking losses across the previous week. The pair settled on Friday at 73.93.  At 12:15 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.02% at 73.95.

Analysts are upwardly revising their GDP projections for India for the current fiscal year following a better than expected GDP reading for the second quarter. Most economist are now expecting an economic contraction of 6% – 8% in fiscal year 2021.

This is an improvement from previous forecasts. Just a month ago the IMF expected the Indian economy to shrink by 10%.

Investment Bank Nomura upgraded its FY21 GDP projection to -8.2%, up from -10.8% previously. Normura is just one of many agencies that raised their outlook over the weekend. Many others are expected to follow suit this week.

The Reserve Bank of India could also upgrade its outlook. The central bank had pencilled in a 9% contraction in October’s quarterly projection. Even so, the RBI is expected to maintain interest rates at the current level. Liquidity is expected to stay in surplus after the RBI purchase record amounts of US Dollars.

The US Dollar is edging higher versus the Rupee but is trending lower versus its major peers on Monday. The US Dollar index trades around a two and a half year low.

Investors continue to sell out of the safe haven US Dollar on vaccine optimism and expectations of a strong economic recovery in the coming months when the covid vaccine becomes widely available.

Adding to the softer tone surrounding the US Dollar are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in December.

Looking ahead there is no high impacting US data. There is some mid-tier data in the form of pending home sales which could provide some cues for the greenback.