GBP/EUR: Brexit & Eurozone CPI To Drive Trading Into The Weekend
  • UK recorded over 24,000 covid cases fears rise of a national lockdown
  • Pound (GBP) picks up off lows on Brexit optimism
  • France & Germany announce national lockdown dragging on Euro (EUR)
  • ECB rate decision in focus, no change expected

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is pushing higher on Thursday. The pair settled marginally lower in the previous session -0.05% at €1.1052, approximately in the middle of the daily traded range. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.2% at €1.1075.

This week has been a quiet week for high impacting UK data meaning that investors are focused almost completely on Brexit and covid developments.

The UK recorded over 24,000 new covid cases over the past 24 hours. The UK is not yet following in the footsteps of Germany and France with national lockdowns; however, more areas of the UK are falling under Tier 3 restrictions which is the highest level of alert. Following the release of some utterly bleak Sage data there is a good chance the UK will follow suit soon.

Elsewhere Brexit talks continue, and headlines suggest progress is being made, which is lifting the Pound. Optimism is growing that a deal can be achieved, and this has helped pick the Pound off session lows

The Euro stabilised in the previous session after both France and Germany announced that they will head back into lockdown in a bid to stem the spread of covid. Concerns over the economic impact that such a policy would have dragged on the Euro earlier in the week.

Attention will now turn to the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. The central bank is not expected to move on policy this week. Yet as covid cases have been rising and tighter lockdown restrictions imposed, the negative impact on the Eurozone economy has started to show through in the data. PMIs for October reveal that business activity contracted.

As the economic picture continues to deteriorate the central bank are widely expected to indicate that there will be more monetary stimulus coming at the December meeting when staff projections are also updated.

Whilst the strength of the Euro had been in focus in previous months, it is unlikely to attract much attention today. Lacklustre inflation is likely to be highlighted as a more pressing issue.