- Euro (EUR) claws higher despite surging covid cases & tighter lockdown restrictions
- Eurozone inflation expected -0.3% MoM
- US Dollar (USD) eases at the end of a strong week on safe haven flows
- US retail sales to show +0.7% MoM
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is attempting to claw higher on the final day of the trading week. The pair settled -0.3% lower on Thursday at US$1.1706 towards the lower end of the daily traded range. At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades +0.1% at US$1.1715. The pair is on track for -0.9% losses across the week, after gaining 0.9% the previous week.
The Euro is attempting to claw higher as the bears pause for breath. Rising coronavirus cases across Europe has weighed on demand for the common currency. As covid cases surge, tighter lockdown restrictions are being implemented which threaten to derail the fragile economic recovery from the initial covid hit.
Investor attention will now turn to Eurozone inflation figures. Analysts are expecting inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, to confirm a -0.3% month on month decline in September. Lacklustre inflation remains a problem for the European Central Bank and tightening of lockdown restrictions means disinflation could continue. For now, the European Central Bank has indicated that it is in wait and see mode. However, the ECB could start to consider additional stimulus if the situation deteriorates further.
The US Dollar is just easing slightly today after a very strong week versus its peers as rising covid cases see investors increasing flows into safe haven assets and currencies such as the US Dollar.
A spike in covid cases both in Europe and the US has triggered fears of fresh lockdown restrictions prompting fears over the global economic recovery. The absence of additional US fiscal stimulus is adding to the downbeat mood, particularly as the US economic recovery is showing signs of stalling. US jobless claims increased last week to 899,000 a 7-week high.
Attention now will turn to US retail sales. Analysts are expecting sales to increase +0.7% month on month in September.