GBP/EUR: Euro Jumps vs. Pound As German Coalition Averts Collapse
  • Euro (EUR) under pressure as rising covid cases threaten economic recovery
  • German IFO sentiment data could help to lift common currency
  • US Dollar (USD) boosted by safe haven flows
  • Federal Reserve speakers see the need for further fiscal stimulus

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is attempting to claw higher, snapping a four day losing streak. The pair settled on Wednesday -0.4% at US$1.6959. At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades +0.07% at US$1.1667, after picking up from a low of US$1.1645.

Fears over rising cases of coronavirus in Europe and this derailing the fragile economic recovery have dragged on demand for the common currency across the week. The impact of spiking cases was reflected in the PMI data released yesterday, which showed that the service sector unexpectedly contracted in September.

The service sector PMI declined to 47.6 in September, down from 50.5 in the previous month. This is the clearest sign so far that the resurgence of covid is threatening the recovery. The data also revealed that the manufacturing sector is more stable with the PMI rising to 53.7 in September, the highest level in 2 years.  The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

Attention will now turn to German IFO sentiment data. Analysts are expecting this to show a slight improvement. A stronger reading could help boost the common currency.

The US Dollar is trading higher versus its peers in strong risk off trading. As investors move out of riskier assets and currencies are seeking the safe haven properties of the greenback.

A series of warnings from the US Federal Reserve overnight unnerved investors. Federal Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the US economy still had a long way to go before recovery. His comments weighed on sentiment. His comments were supported by Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida who considers the US economy to be in a “deep hole”.

Jerome Powell sees a strong case for additional fiscal support from the US government. However, another rescue package before the US Presidential elections is starting to look very unlikely.