indian-rupee-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee strengthens as risk sentiment jumps on vaccine hopes
  • Strong Indian equity markets support the rising Rupee
  • Safe US Dollar (USD) moves lower ahead of US non-farm payroll report, 3 million jobs are expected to have been created in June
  • US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate experiences largest one day decline since April 23rd, dropping through 75.00

After a dull previous session, today the Indian Rupee is experiencing its largest one day jump in 2.5 months. At 10:15 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.9% at 74.81. This is at the lower end of the daily traded range of 74.64 – 75.52.

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech reported encouraging vaccine test results for one of its 4 vaccine candidates. In a small early stage human trial of 45 people, the subjects showed a strong immune response. Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease added to the upbeat mood by saying that Oxford’s vaccine project is currently ahead of others.

Optimism surrounding a potential covid-19 vaccine is not only boosting the perceived riskier Indian Rupee but also denting demand for the safe haven US. The risk on mood is also lifting demand for riskier assets such as stock. The Indian stock market, the Sensex soared 1.5%, whilst the Nifty 50 also traded over 1% higher. Foreign institutional buyers of Indian stocks is underpinning the Rupee.

The US Dollar is trading lower across the board as investors focus on upbeat vaccine news which is overshadowing the surging coronavirus case numbers in the South of the US. Daily coronavirus cases increased by over 50,000 in America on Wednesday raising fears that the reopening process will grind to a halt and a strict lockdown reimposed.

Investors will now look ahead to the US non-farm payroll for further clues as to how the labour market is holding up as covid-19 cases soar. Analysts are expecting 3 million jobs to have been created in June, adding to the 2.5 million in May, after 20 million were lost in April. The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 12.3%.

A weak reading could be on the cards following the lower than forecast ADP private payroll on Wednesday. The ADP payroll is a strong lead indicator for the NFP.


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