GBP/USD: UK and US Manufacturing in Focus As Investors Brace For A Busy Week
  • Indian Rupee (INR) supported by a jump in manufacturing pmi in June
  • Meanwhile, extended lockdown is certain areas is keeping Rupee under pressure
  • US Dollar (USD) trades flat ahead of a barrage of data and Federal Reserve minutes from the latest policy meeting
  • US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate trades flat at 75.55

The gauge of Indian manufacturing activity rose sharply in June as lockdown measures were eased and economic activity resumed. The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped to 47.2 in June, up sharply from 30.8 in May and after having fallen to an all-time low in April. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

With both output and new orders contracting at a much slower pace, the data indicates that the worst could be in the past.  However, Indian is by no means out of the woods yet as rising coronavirus cases mean that locks downs could be re imposed or extended. This could derail the economic recovery and prolong the crisis.

The data comes a day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned citizens against flouting lockdown restrictions put in place to slow the spread of the virus. Several Indian cities prepare to extend their lockdown to combat the virus, as new daily cases remain around 20,000. The total now sits around 550,000 cases in India, behind the US, Brazil and Russia. More than 16,000 people have died from covid-19, a low rate given the high number of cases.

The US Dollar is trading flat versus its major peers as investors await the next catalyst from data due to be released later today and the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Investors will scrutinise the minutes for clues as to how the Fed views the economic recovery developing. A cautious sounding central bank could unnerve investors and boost demand for the safe haven US Dollar.

Data wise, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing data will be in focus, as well as ADP private payroll figures. Analysts are forecasting a 3 million increase in payrolls in June, after a -2.7 million decline in May. The private payroll data will provide guidance as to what can be expected from tomorrow’s non-farm payoll data.