- Perceived riskier Australian Dollar is advancing on upbeat global data
- Rising US coronavirus cases are keeping gains capped
- US Dollar (USD) looks to minutes from Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and US non-farm payroll tomorrow
- Australian Dollar US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate trades at US$0.6935
At 14:00 UTC, AUD/USD is trading +0.5% at US$0.6935, at the upper end of the daily traded range of US$0.6877 – US$0.6939.
After a shaky start the Australian Dollar is extending gains for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, supported by data across the globe broadly surprising to the upside. Stronger data is overshadowing fears of the steeply rising number of coronavirus cases in the US.
Today the number of new daily coronavirus cases in America increased by 48,000. As areas halt reopening plans, investors fear that the economic recovery could be de-railed before it has really started. These fears are keeping the rally in the Aussie Dollar in check.
Australian manufacturing sector unexpectedly returned to growth in June as the economy reopened. The PMI came in at 51.2, up from the previous contraction of 44. The upbeat reading was then followed by stronger than forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMI’s and surging German retail sales. The encouraging data has boosted hopes of a quick global economic recovery.
Data from the US was mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI showed a return to growth at 52.6, versus the 49.5 level forecast. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.
However, ADP labour market data failed to live up to expectations, increasing by 2.3 million private payrolls, lower than the 3 million forecast. The ADP report is considered a strong lead indicator for the closely watched US non-farm payroll data which is due to be released on tomorrow.
Analysts are expecting the headline NFP report number to show 3 million jobs were added in June, topping last months record 2.5 million. The unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 12.5%. However following today’s figures there is a good chance that the headline figure will miss.
Prior to the NFP attention will turn towards the minutes from the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Investors will scrutinise the minutes for clues as to how the Fed views the US economic recovery progressing. A very cautious Fed could unnerve investors boosting the safe haven US Dollar.
