- Australian Dollar (AUD) lacked firm directional bias on Monday
- A positive mood in the equity markets is helping under pin the Aussie Dollar
- US Dollar (USD) weaker although coronavirus jitters could keep losses in safe haven greenback capped, pending homes orders smash forecasts
- At 14:00 UTC, Australian Dollar US Dollar exchange rate trades -0.05% at US$0.8650
After gaining 0.4% across the previous week, the Australian Dollar is treading water at the start of the new week. The riskier Australian Dollar and the safe haven US Dollar are well matched amid swaying risk sentiment.
On the one hand, Chinese factories saw profits grow for the first time in six months. According to the Chinese national bureau of statistics, factory profits jumped 6% year on year in May, well up from April’s-4.3% decline and the steepest rise in over two years. The data points to the economic recovery in China gaining traction which is lifting risk sentiment.
Not only is the Aussie Dollar risk sensitive but China is also Australia’s largest trading partner. The Australian Dollar is considered a Chinese proxy.
On the other hand, the number of global coronavirus cases, and most notably, the number of rising cases in the US is unnerving investors, dragging on risk sentiment. The Governor of California has started to roll back some reopening measures in order to bring to covid-19 cases back under control. Investors fear that rising covid-19 cases could knock the economic recovery.
There is no high impacting Australian data due for release today, instead investors will look ahead to Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday morning local time. Analysts are expecting the readings to show activity expanded in June. Strong Chinese data could help the mood in the market and lift the Australian Dollar.
US domestic data was extremely encouraging. Pending home sales rebounded impressively in May, obliterating expectations. Pending homes houses soared 44.3% in May compared to the previous month, after falling -21.8% in April. Analysts had pencilled in an increase of 19.1%. On an annual basis home sale were down a better than forecast -5.1%.
Tomorrow, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take centre stage, followed by non-farm payrolls on Thursday ahead of the long public holiday weekend.