• German GFK consumer confidence data beats forecasts, offering support to Euro (EUR)
  • ECB monetary policy meeting minutes to be released and could under pin Euro
  • Safe haven US Dollar (USD) well supported on rising covid numbers and ahead of a triple hit of US data releases
  • Euro US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) struggles to hold US$1.1250

The Euro is trading mildly lower in a quiet start to the session. The Euro US Dollar exchange rate settled on Wednesday -0.5% at US$1.1252 amid a risk off climate.

At 06:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades -0.08% at US$1.1242 as risk aversion continues and as investors look ahead to a slew of US economic data.

The Euro is finding some support in early trade despite strong risk off sentiment keeping the safe haven US Dollar buoyant.

Increasing coronavirus cases, particularly in the US are raising fears that the economic recovery could be de-railed. The International Monetary Fund fuelled those fears by downgrading the global growth projections to -5%, down from -3% just 10 weeks earlier. The IMF highlighted the unprecedented hit to consumer spending and more economic scarring, with firms going out of business and people remaining unemployed for longer as reasons for the deeper downturn and more drawn out recovery.

German consumer confidence data has under pinned the Euro this morning. Household sentiment ticked higher to -9.6 in July, a significant improvement from June’s -18.9, and beating forecasts of -12. Whilst the data is a step in the right direction overall sentiment remains subdued and shows that it will take time for things to really pick up to pre-coronavirus levels.

Looking ahead the minutes from the latest European Central Bank meeting could provide additional support to the common currency.

US Dollar investors will look ahead to a triple hit of data releases, including jobless claims, durable goods and GDP data.

Initial jobless claims are expected to show that 1.3 million Americans signed up for unemployment benefits, slightly down from last week’s 1.5 million. Continuous claims which show the number of Americans being hired is also only marginally lower at 19.6 million, down from 20.5 million.

These figures show that the US labour market is only improving at a frustratingly slow rate. Weaker than forecast data could hit risk sentiment further and boost the safe haven US Dollar.

US GDP data is expected to confirm -5% annual contraction in the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile durable goods orders are expected to rebound higher. Any positive data could be overshadowed by rising coronavirus numbers.


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