- S&P affirms India’s rating at the lowest investment grade
- Risk off dragging on Indian Rupee (INR) demand
- US Dollar (USD) look to jobless claims figures
- At 10:15 UTC, US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) is trading +0.16% at 75.73
Pressure remains on the Indian Rupee, which is heading lower versus the US Dollar for a third straight session on Thursday. The Rupee settled -0.17% lower versus the US Dollar at 75.73 on Wednesday.
At 10:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading +0.16% at 75.73. This is at the upper end of the daily traded range of 75.58 – 75. 89, a 3-week high, amid a broad-based US Dollar bounce and after the S&P rating agency affirmed its outlook on India.
The international rating agency Standard & Poor’s Global affirmed India’s sovereign credit rating at the lowest investment grade, while maintaining its stable outlook on the economy. This comes after rating agency Moody’s Investor Service downgraded India’s rating by a notch earlier in the week.
Whilst S&P didn’t downgrade India, it did warn that the impact of covid-19 posed a significant challenge to the country’s economic growth trajectory. The rating agency forecasts that India’s economy will contract by -5% in the current financial year. However, it expects growth of 8.5% in the next financial year. The S&P also warned that fiscal deficit may shoot up to 11% of GDP, but then fall to 8.5% of GDP in the coming fiscal year.
Adding pressure on the riskier perceived Indian Rupee was a broad risk off climate across the financial markets. Risk appetite has taken a hit following a gloomy outlook from the US Federal Reserve, boosting the safe haven US Dollar.
In the first projections since the coronavirus crisis started, the Fed warned that the US economy could contract -6.5% across the year with unemployment at 9.5%. The Fed expects to keep interest rates at 0 until 2022.
Investors will now look ahead to the release of jobless claims data. Analysts are expecting jobless claims to increase by 1.5 million, down from 1.87 million last week and significantly down from the March/ April peak. Continuing claims will also attract attention as this figure will reveal how quickly people are being hired, and therefore give a sense of how quickly the labour market is recovering.
