• Indian Rupee (INR) advances despite manufacturing activity remaining near record low in May
  • Indian unemployment at 23.48%, only marginally up from last month
  • US Dollar (USD) broadly weaker as Trump softens tone, although China could rock the boat.
  • At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.05% at 75.53. Real time exchange rate

The Indian Rupee is trading mildly higher versus the US Dollar on Monday. The move northwards comes after the Rupee declined by -0.7% versus the greenback across the month of May. The Indian Rupee US Dollar exchange rate settled on Friday, at the end of the month at 75.60.

At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.05% at 75.53. This is at the upper end of the daily traded range of 75.27 – 75.61 as India’s manufacturing slump deepens and amid broad US Dollar weakness.

Data revealed that India’s manufacturing activity contracted sharply in May, following a historic contraction in April. The Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers index, compiled by HIS Markit increased to 30.8 in May, up from the record low of 27.4 in April, but still deep in contraction. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

The report showed the coronavirus lockdown measures continue to hamper demand and firms are cutting jobs at the fastest pace on record in an attempt to remain afloat.

Adding to the Indian Rupee’s woes, Think Tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CIME) reported that India’s unemployment rate reached in May to 23.48% only very marginally lower from April’s 23.52%, reflecting the damage to the India economy and labour market.

However, the Rupee has managed to advance despite the barrage of horrendous data thanks to a weaker US. The safe haven greenback eased lower as investors cheered encouraging Chinese data overnight and after President Trump adopted a softer tone with China in a key speech on Friday.

President Trump removed Hong Kong’s special trade status as expected. However, he didn’t impose any new tariffs on China, boosting risk sentiment in early trade on Monday.

Proving just how fluid the situation is, two large Chinese state-owned firms have been instructed today to halt purchases of US farm products whilst Beijing evaluates its relations with the US. The is the clearest sign yet that the hard fought for trade deal could be at risk.

Investors will now look ahead to US manufacturing pmi data. Analysts are expecting activity to remain deep in contraction, in line with the preliminary reading at 39.8. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.