• Indian Rupee (INR) losses limited by surging
  • No change from RBI expected
  • US Dollar (USD) traces Treasury yields higher
  • US initial jobless claims in focus

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is advancing on Thursday snapping a two day losing streak. The pair settled -0.1% on Wednesday at 72.81. At 12:30 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.22% at 72.92.

The Indian Rupee continues trading in a narrow range ahead of the key monetary policy decision later in the week.

The Rupee managed to edge higher on Wednesday thanks to strong inflows and a solid domestic equities market.

Domestic equities are extending the post budget rally for another session, hitting fresh intraday record highs once again after State Bank of India beat quarterly profit estimates lifting the sector. The Nifty closed 0.7% higher as did the benchmark Sensex. Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers.

All attention now turns towards the central bank’s monetary policy announcement. The Reserve Bank of India is not expected to adjust monetary policy. In light of the recovering economy and the budget earlier this week the RBI are expected to rely on a fiscal approach to lift the economy out from its unprecedented slowdown.

The US Dollar is trading higher versus the Indian Rupee and its major peers on Thursday. The US Dollar Index which measures the US Dollar versus its major peers trades +0.30%, supported by rising US Treasury yields on the back of an improving outlook for the US economy.

The prospect of a $1.9 trillion covid stimulus package under the Joe Biden Administration is boosting sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. Additionally, the accelerating vaccination rollout and improving economic data are boosting demand for the greenback.

The US ADP payroll data yesterday showed that the US private sector added 174,000 jobs in January following a cull of 123,000 in December. Analysts had expected 49,000 jobs to have been added.

Looking ahead, US jobless claims data will be in focus ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Expectations are for 830,000 Americans to have signed up for unemployment benefits. This would represent a marginal decline from 847,000 last week.