• Indian Rupee (INR) falls after gains last week
  • Portfolio inflows in focus
  • US Dollar (USD) falls versus major peers
  • USD falls as dovish pivot bets rise

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling on Monday after booking losses last week. The pair fell -0.37% lower last week, settling on Friday at 80.97. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.57% at 81.44, trading in a range of 80.97 – 81.88.

The Rupee could rise again this week, while government bond yields could move marginally higher amid concerns over another year of high government borrowing.

This week is a holiday-shortened week in India; a week which is also a week-long public holiday in China for the Lunar New Year could see investors focus on foreign portfolio inflows into domestic Indian markets.

NSDL data revealed that overseas investors bought $1.9 billion in Indian equities so far this year. The bond market has seen inflows of a similar level.

Attention will start turning towards the Indian government’s budget, which is set to be announced on February 1st.

The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.23% at the time of writing at 101.7, marking its fifth straight day of losses.

The US dollar fell last week and is extending those losses today as investors grow increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hikes from the February meeting.

Federal Reserve officials have entered a blackout. Before the policy meeting on February the first. However, the market is fully pricing in a 25-basis point rate hike, down from the 50 basis point hike in the last meeting.

A slew of weaker-than-expected economic data last week, including retail sales and industrial production, suggests that the US economy slowed sharply in the final months of last year, even as the labour market remained resilient.

There is no high-impacting US economic data due to be released. Attention will be on US Q4 GDP data on Thursday and core PCE, the fed’s preferred inflation measure, on Friday.