inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady after small losses last week
  • Indian economy to grow 7% in the coming fiscal year
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus major peers
  • Fed rate decision is on Wednesday

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is edging higher after small gains in the previous week. The pair rose 0.03%  last week, settling on Friday at 83.11. At 18:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.06% at 83.14 and trades in a range of 83.12 to 83.16.

The Indian Rupee is showing resilience Against the stronger U.S. dollar after an upbeat GDP outlook.

The Indian government estimates that its economy could grow 7% in the next fiscal year despite geopolitical risks from the Red Sea which could invent global inflation and supply chains.

The Indian government’s latest economic review shows that India’s growth will outpace the global economy in the fiscal year, which starts from April 1, thanks to stable economic demand, domestic demand, and private investment.

If supply chain disruptions persist this year, it could impact trade flows, transport costs, as well as economic output and inflation; however, India is confident that it could weather these headwinds.

The growth forecasts come days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will present its budget before the country heads to a general election later this year.

The US Dollar is rising across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.24% at the time of writing at 103.69, after gains last week.

The US dollar is pushing higher as investors look towards Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the first meeting of 2024, and investors have also been preparing for the prospect that the US central bank could push back against expectations of a March rate cut.

The market is now pricing in under a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates on Wednesday. This is down from 85% in December, according to the CME Fed watch tool.

The repricing of fed rate cut expectations comes after a series of stronger-than-expected data, reinforcing the view that the US economy is holding up well despite interest rates reaching a 15-year high.

Looking ahead, no significant economic data will be released today. Investors will look ahead to consumer confidence data tomorrow, which is expected to rise to 115, up from 110.7. Improving computer confidence often goes hand in hand with higher spending, which is considered inflationary.