• Indian Rupee (INR) rises after gains last week
  • Indian inflation rose in June to 4.81% YoY
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus major peers for a 6th day
  • US PMI data is due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling at the start of the week, extending losses from last week. The pair fell -0.08% in the previous week, settling on Friday at 81.98. At 10:30 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.20% at 82.83 and trades in a range of 81.82 to 82.06.

BP is rising class the recent increase in inflation has prompted investors to push back on rate cut expectations. The Reserve Bank of India is not expected to cut rates now until the middle of 2024, according to traders and analysts.

Soaring food prices for India’s annual retail inflation rate rise in June to 4.81% above the expected 4.58%, ending four straight months of cooling inflation. Vegetable prices have risen 25% on a CPI-weighted basis in July, which could see CPI rise back towards 6.3%. Inflation is likely to remain elevated in August as well, before easing in September. Still, the elevated inflation is likely to mean that the RBI will keep rates higher for longer.

The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at 0.16% at the time of writing at 101.26, extending gains for a sixth straight session.

The US dollar pushed higher last week after stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data highlighted the resilience of the US labour market. The data field that the Federal Reserve could adopt a slightly more hawkish approach at this week’s FOMC rate decision.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points although markets are not pricing in any further interest rate hikes across this year.

Prior to the US central banks meeting this week, today attention is on US business activity data as measured by the PMIs. The services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 54.1 in July down from 54.4 in June. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.