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INR bank notes
  • Indian Rupee (INR) extends rises but trend remains
  • Indian GDP downwardly revised by HSBC
  • US Dollar (USD) rises as jobless claims impress
  • US looks PMI data tomorrow

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange is heading lower snapping a three day winning run. The pair settled +0.05% higher on Wednesday at 75.48. At 16:30 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.4% at 75.10 as it continues to hover around levels last seen in July last year.

The Indian Rupee continues to trade at 9 month lows, although the sell off eases today, the day that India posts world record covid cases and sees oxygen running out.

India recorded 314,835 new daily infections on Thursday, the highest level ever recorded . The number raises concerns over the ability of the health system to cope.  More states are locking down, which is investors fear will impact India’s economic recovery.

HSBC is the latest bank to downgrade India’s growth outlook. HSBC now suggest that year on year growth could come under pressure. Analysts at the bank now expect a GDP contraction quarter on quarter. HSBC sees GDP falling -2.3% year on year in March.

The US Dollar is slipping versus the Indian Rupee. However, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades +0.09% at the time of writing at 91.24 as it continues to recover from a 7 week low hit earlier in the week.

Data revealed that the US labour market continued to strengthen. First time claims rose by 547,000 which was down from 586,000 recorded last week. This was well below the 617,000 initial jobless claims that analysts were expecting.

Jobless claims are now at the lowest level since the pandemic started and show that the recovery in the labour market remains on an encouraging path. However, there is still some distance to go until the jobs market is at its pre-pandemic level.

After a quiet week data wise tomorrow sees the release of the PMI numbers which will offer further clues over the state of the economy.