• Indian Rupee (INR) falls for a fourth day
  • Indian retail inflation hits a 15-month high
  • US Dollar (USD) pauses for breath around monthly peak
  • US retail sales data due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising for a fourth straight session. The pair rose +0.33% in the previous session, settling on Monday at 83.17. At 10:30 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.12% at 83.27 and trades in a range of 83.16 to 83.29.

The Rupee is falling amid more concerns over growth in China and as Indian retail inflation jumps.

China industrial production grew 3.7% year on year in July, slowing from 4.4% in June and retail sales rose 2.5%, down from 3.1% the previous month, adding to concerns over the state of the economy.

Separately, India’s retail inflation rose to its highest level in 15 months in July as vegetable and cereal prices rocketed, piling [pressure on the government to tame inflation with just 9 months to go to the elections.

India’s retail inflation rose to 7.44% in July, up from 4.87% in the previous month. This was well above 6.4% that analysts had forecast and is the highest level since April 2022.

The US Dollar is rising versus the Rupee but falling versus major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.09% at the time of writing at 103.08, snapping a 4-day losing streak.

The US dollar is pausing for a breath just below a monthly high. The US dollar has been in demand recently amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for longer than expected as inflation remains sticky. This comes after hotter-than-expected inflation data last week.

Attention will now turn to US retail sales which could provide further clues, adding to the debate. The US consumer has so far remained resilient, even in the face of rising interest rates. Ongoing strength in consumption could boost the USD further. Expectations are for retail sales to rise 0.4% month on month in July after rising 0.2% in June.