- Indian Rupee (INR) falls but gains across the week
- Indian GDP is expected to slow in the January – March period
- US Dollar (USD) falls versus majors on cooling Fed bets
- US PCE inflation due
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Friday for a third straight session. The pair settled +0.16% higher on Thursday at 77.63. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.03% at 77.65. The pair is set to lose -0.3% across the week.
The Indian Rupee is edging lower on Friday as expectations of economic growth cool. Analysts expect India’s economic recovery from the pandemic to stumble in the first three months of this year owing to Omicron restrictions and then surging inflation.
GDP growth in India, Asa’s third-largest economy was penciled in at 4% for the January to March period, compared to the same period a year earlier but down from 5.4% in Q4 of 2021. If this is realized then it will mark the slowest growth in a year and a third straight quarter of slowing growth.
The US Dollar is rising versus the Rupee but falling against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.1% at the time of writing at 101.72. The USD is set to lose 1.3% across the week.
The US dollar fell yesterday after weak US data prompted investors to reassess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking rates aggressively across the remainder of the year. US Q1 GDP was revised lower to -1.5%, from -1.4% confirming a contraction in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, US pending home sales dropped for a sixth straight month, hitting a two-year low as rising mortgage costs hit the housing market.
Looking ahead today the focus is on US Personal consumption expenditure (PCE data). This is considered to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for inflation. Core PCE is expected to slip to 4.9% year on year in April, down from 5.2% in March. Should inflation fall slightly, this could boost optimism that peak inflation has passed and pull the USD lower.