- Indian Rupee (INR) is rising despite weakness in domestic equities
- Oil prices fall from a 2-month high
- US Dollar (USD) is rising against its major peers
- US inflation & Fed chair Powell are in focus this week
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is edging lower after modest gains in the previous week. The pair rose 0.17% in the previous session, settling on Friday at 83.50. At 18:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.03% at 83.47 and is in a range of 83.51 to 83.44.
The Indian rupee is making modest gains as oil prices fall and despite domestic equities trading lower. The Sensex closed -0.05% at 79,960, while the Nifty 50 was almost flat. However, foreign portfolio investors continue to show strong buying interest in Indian equities, with net inflows of around $1 billion in the first week of July this year.
Oil prices have fallen from a two-month high and a monthly high on optimism that a ceasefire may be achieved in Gaza.
The US Dollar is flat against the Rupee but is rising versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades +0.07% at the time of writing at 104.95, after losses last week.
USD is rising modestly after falling close to 1% last week. A series of weaker-than-expected data supported views that the Federal Reserve could soon start cutting interest rates.
On Friday, the no-farm payroll report showed that 206,000 jobs were created in June. Whilst this was ahead of expectations of 190,000, the previous two months saw large downward revisions of 111,000, pointing to weakness in the labour market.
Meanwhile, unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4%, and average earnings were 0.3% month to month, down from 0.4%.
The NFP came after the services PMI contracted at the fastest pace since November 2021, pointing to slow growth and weak job demand.
Attention this week will be on US inflation data on Thursday and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell as he testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday in a bi-annual event. A dovish sounding Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, could pull the US dollar
