- Pound (GBP) rises after losses yesterday
- BRC retail sales rose 3.2% YoY in March
- Euro (EUR) falls after ECB bank lending survey
- Demand for loans remains slow
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after yesterday’s losses. The pair fell -0.06%, settling on Monday at €1.1650 and trading in a range between €1.1645 and €1.1666. At 10:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.17% at €1.1670.
The pound is heading higher after upbeat data, which points to a recovery in consumption over Easter.
According to the latest British Retail Consortium, retail sales in the UK spiked 3.2% year on year in March, marking the strongest monthly sales since August and smashing forecasts of 1.8%
These figures are not seasonally adjusted, so an early Easter has helped drive up food sales ahead of the long weekend. But upbeat spending also points to an easing in cost-of-living pressures.
The data shows that UK inflation cooled to 3.4% in February, its lowest level since 2021.
The data also comes after figures yesterday showed that gross wages grew at the slowest pace in three years in March, a sign that inflationary pressures and the cost-of-living crisis are easing.
Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure as investors digest the latest ECB bank lending survey, which showed no immediate pick-up in borrowing.
The quarterly survey showed that demand for loans remained slow in the region, meaning that investment is likely to stay subdued in the coming months. This is a sign that tight monetary policy is still having a restrictive effect on the economy.
The data comes ahead of the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4%, a record high. However, the bank could signal a rate cut in the June meeting as inflation in the region moves closer to the central bank’s 2% target.
The data also shows some signs of the downturn in the region bottoming out after German industrial production rose to its highest level in 13 months and eurozone investor sentiment improved for a sixth straight month, reaching a two-year high.
