• Indian Rupee (INR) falls for a third day
  • Indian GDP is set to fall below 7%
  • US Dollar (USD) falls further against its major peers
  • US core PCE inflation data is awaited

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising for a third straight day. The pair rose 0.03% in the previous session, settling on Wednesday at 82.90. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.02% at 82.91 and trades in a range of 82.88 to 83.02.

India’s economic growth is expected to have slipped below 7% for the first time in the current fiscal year in the October to December period amid weaker manufacturing and softer consumption.

India’s economy is expected to grow 6.6% in the three months to December 31st, slowing from 7.6% in the previous quarter and 7.8% in the quarter prior to that.

Meanwhile, oil prices are edging lower, offering some support to the rupee. Oil prices edged down after oil inventories recorded a 4.2 million barrels build in the week ending February 23rd. This was ahead of forecasts.

The US Dollar is rising against the Rupee but falling versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.16% at the time of writing at 103.81, after gains in the previous session.

The US dollar is inching lower ahead of key inflation data later today, which could provide further clues over when the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates.

US core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation, is expected to call 2.8% year on year in February, down from 2.9% in January. However, on a monthly basis, inflation is expected to rise 0.4%, up from 0.2%, which would mark the second straight monthly acceleration.

Hot inflation would support the Federal Reserve’s view that they’re in no rush to start cutting interest rates and would also highlight the bumpy path that the Fed is facing in bringing inflation back to its 2% target.

As well as inflation data, US personal spending figures will be under the spotlight after rising 0.7% 0.7% in December, highlighting the resilience of the US consumer. Analysts are expecting personal spending to cool slightly to 0.2% in January.

Jobless claims will also be under the spotlight and are expected to hold steady at 210 in line with the previous week.