GBP/USD: Both US & UK Retail Sales Impress
  • Pound (GBP) rises after losses at the start of the week
  • Retail sales expected to rise
  • Euro (EUR) slips after German PPI falls
  • ECB rate decision next week

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising for a second straight session. The pair rose +0.1% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.1561 and traded in a range between €1.1496 – €1.1562. At 05:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades 0.06% at €1.1570.

The pound stabilised in the previous session after four days of losses after inflation data earlier in the week showed that consumer prices in the UK cooled by more than expected. Cooler inflation has seen the market rein in jumbo rate hike expectations for August, instead now expecting a 25 basis point hike.

Attention will now turn to UK retail sales data which is expected to show that retail sales grew a steady 0.2% month on month in June after rising 0.3% in May. Sales are proving to be resilient as households continue to struggle with high inflation and high interest rates. Weaker-than-expected sales could see the pound continuing to fall lower.

In addition to retail sales the Office of National Statistics is due to publish public sector net borrowing, which is expected to reveal the borrowing increased to a pace of £22 billion up from £19.2 billion in June.

The euro gave up earlier gains on Thursday after German wholesale inflation cooled by less than expected to 0.1% annually in June, down from 1% but ahead of the 0 percent that had been forecast.

Still, the data points to a trend of cooling inflation in the region, which bodes well for the inflation outlook.

Eurozone consumer confidence also came in stronger than expected and – 15 in July up from -16.1 in June and ahead of the -16 forecast. This is still below the long-term average as high inflation and interest rates keep households under pressure.

There is no high impacting eurozone economic data due to be released today. Attention will turn towards the ECB rate decision next week.