counting-inr-bank-notes - INR
INR bank notes
  • Indian Rupee (INR) rises despite a surprise decision from the RBI
  • Rates remain at 6.5%
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus major peers as recession fears rise
  • US jobless claims data is due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling for a third straight day. The pair fell -0.17% in the previous session, settling at 81.95. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.03% at 81.92 and trades in a range of 82.81 to 82.12.

The Reserve Bank of India surprised the market by keeping the repo rate on hold on Thursday after six straight rate hikes. The central bank has paused rate hikes at 6.5%, Analysts had expected one more hike of 25 basis points.

The central bank signaled that it could further hike rates if it deemed it necessary, but most economists now expect the central bank to keep rates on hold. The central bank said this is a pause, not a pivot, which is keeping the Rupee supported.

The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades +0.09% at the time of writing at 101.94, adding to yesterday’s gains.

The US dollar is pushing higher for a second straight day as recession fears continued to unnerve investors. More weak data from the US yesterday raised fares at the world’s largest economy was heading towards a severe downturn.

The ISM services PMI fell by more than expected to 51.5 in March, down from 55.5 in February. The data comes after ISM manufacturing figures earlier in the week showed that activity had fallen to an almost 2 year low.

Furthermore, cracks are appearing in the US jobs market. ADP private payrolls fell by more than expected to 145k, down from 242k in March, and job openings have fallen below 10 million for the first time in two years.

Attention now times to US jobless claims, which are game rise to 200k up from 198k in the previous week.