• Indian Rupee (INR) falls as Adani losses swell
  • RBI is expected to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points
  • US Dollar (USD) holds steady versus major peers
  • US Fed rate decision is due this week

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Monday. The pair rose +0.16% on Monday, settling at 81.51. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.16% at 81.64 and trades within a range of 81.54 – 81.72.

The Indian Rupee is edging lower at the start of the week as the Adani group losses swell to $70 billion, dragging domestic equities lower and as investors look ahead to the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision.

The RBI is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.5% at the February meeting, which comes one week after The Budget, which will be announced on Wednesday.

The forecasts come amid expectations of a slowdown in GDP to 6% in the fiscal year 2023/24, from an expected 6.7% i9n the current fiscal year.

The US Dollar is rising against the Rupee but holds steady against major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.03% at the time of writing at 101.90, after mild losses last week.

The US dollar is holding steady as investors look ahead to the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected slow the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points after a 50 basis point rate hike in December and for 75 basis point rate hikes in the previous months.

The central bank decision comes after data on Friday shade that core PCE, the fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, cooled to 4.4% year on year in December, down from 4.7%. While this is still near a multi-decade high, headline inflation dropped to its lowest level in more than a year in December.

In addition to the US Federal Reserve rate decision, investors will also look ahead to Friday’s non-farm payroll report. The US jobs market has remained resilient even as the economy slowed.