• Indian Rupee (INR) falls on China growth concerns
  • Oil prices fall as OPEC revises lower the demand outlook
  • US Dollar (USD) falls versus major peers
  • US PPI is due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising for a second straight session.  The pair rose +0.6% yesterday, settling on Tuesday at 80.99. Today, at 10:30 USD/INR trades +0.21% at 81.16, trading in a range between 80.99 to 81.48.

The Rupee is falling amid concerns about the health of the Chinese economy. China saw industrial production rise by 5% year on year, below the 6.3% forecast. Meanwhile, retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.5% annually, defying expectations of a rise of 2.5%.

The data suggests that the Chinese economy is seeing growth momentum slow as it struggles against the zero-COVID measures. While a reduction of some COVID restrictions has boosted optimism in recent weeks, the data shows how economically damaging the zero-COVID strategy is.

Separately oil prices have fallen over 4% after OPEC downwardly revised its demand outlook. Weaker oil prices could offer some support to the Rupee.

The US Dollar is rising versus the Rupee but falling versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.4% at the time of writing at 106.17 after rising 0.4% in the previous session.

The US dollar is heading lower as investors continue to speculate over the Fed’s path for interest rates. Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that the time to slow interest rate hikes could be approaching. However, she also reiterated Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments that the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to bring inflation back down.

Expectations are rising that the Fed will hike rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting after four straight meetings of 75 basis point hikes. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, this could mean that the USD has peaked and is now set to decline across 2023.

Looking ahead, attention will be on US producer price index (PPI), which measures inflation at the factory gate level. Expectations are for PPI to cool to 8.3% year on year in September, down from 8.5%.