- Indian Rupee (INR) falls after a 6-day winning run
- India’s wholesale inflation drops to 8.39%
- US Dollar (USD) rises after hawkish Fed comments
- No US data today
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is on Monday snapping a six-day losing run. The pair fell -1.78% last week, settling on Friday at 80.50. Today, at 10:30 USD/INR trades +0.90% at 81.24, trading in a range between 80.51 to 81.29.
The Rupee is falling after inflation data shows that inflation is easing. India’s wholesale inflation, as measured by the WPI, cooled in October to 8.39% year on year. This was the lowest level since March 2021, thanks to falling commodity prices and a sharp decline in fuel prices.
The WPI figure was down from 10.7% in September and was also below the 8.7% that analysts were expecting. Fuel price inflation fell 23.17% in October, down from 32.6% the prior month.
The US Dollar is rising across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.51% higher at the time of writing at 106.80, after dropping 4% last week.
The USD tumbled last week after data showed that inflation and core inflation are falling. The cooler-than-forecast reading raised speculation that the Federal Reserve could ease the pace at which it hikes interest rates. These expectations were cemented by comments from Fed speakers Mary Daly and Patrick Harker, who indicated that it could be appropriate to consider a slower pace to hikes.
However, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller was more hawkish in his comments over the weekend, saying that the US central bank still has a way to go before it can stop raising interest rates.
While the Fed could be considering a smaller 50 basis point hike in December after a string of 75 basis point hikes, he cautioned that the Fed would keep hiking even though inflation is cooling.
There is no high-impacting US economic data due to be released today.