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INR bank notes
  • Indian Rupee (INR) falls after hitting a one-month high yesterday
  • China COVID concerns return
  • US Dollar (USD) rises with elections in focus
  • Gridlocked government expected

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Tuesday after two days of losses.  The pair fell -0.19% on Monday, settling at 81.80, trading in a range between 81.80 to 82.32. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.20% at 81.96.

The Rupee hit an over one-month high in the previous session as Asian currencies rallied across the board, despite negative news out of China. Risk assets shrugged off denials by the Chinese authorities that they were considering easing strict COVID restrictions.

Today, Rupee is edging lower in a broad risk-off mood in the market. China’s COVID cases are at a 6 month high, raising fears that more lockdowns could be on the way.

Separately oil prices are heading lower, which could offer some support to the Rupee. At the time of writing West Texas Intermediate trades -1% at $90.28.

The US Dollar is rising across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.44% at the time of writing at 110.60 paring losses from the previous session.

The US dollar is pushing higher on safe-haven flows ahead of the US midterm elections, which could change the political environment in Washington.

The Republicans are widely expected to win control of the House of Representatives in a move that could create a gridlocked government, paralyzing President Biden’s legislative agenda over the final two years of the Biden administration.

While stocks historically are bullish in a gridlocked government scenario, this may not necessarily be the case for the USD. Given that those inflationary fiscal measures supported by the Democrats could now struggle to get through Congress, the USD typically comes under pressure in this environment.

Today there is no high impacting US economic data. Attention will be on Fed speakers tomorrow ahead of Thursday’s inflation figures.