inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) under pressure as oil rallies
  • Inflation forecast revised lower
  • US Dollar (USD) rises on Fed taper expectations
  • US CPI & Fed minutes due this week

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is pushing higher for a fourth straight session on Monday. The pair gained over 1.3% across the previous week and settled on Friday at 75.11. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.35% at 75.37 a six-month high.

The Rupee trades under pressure after the government warned that volatility in the crude oil market posses a threat to the Indian economy.

Oil prices trade at seven-year highs amid the ongoing energy crisis. Rising prices of coal and gas make oil comparatively cheaper and more attractive, sending oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate trades over 1.5% higher on Monday.

Despite surging oil prices inflation is expected to cool in the coming months. On Friday the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee left interest rates unchanged and lowered its retail inflation projection to 5.3% down from 5.7% for the current fiscal year.

However, the RBI highlighted concerns over rising fuel prices suggesting that the government may look to cut taxes on fuel to keep prices contained.

The US Dollar is gaining ground across the board. US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades +0.21% at the time of writing at 94.26 putting it on track for its sixth straight week of gains.

The US Dollar trades higher as investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of its bond buying programme next month, despite the weak non-farm payroll report on Friday.

The US jobs report revealed a huge miss for a second straight month with just 194,000 jobs added in September well short of the 500,000 forecast. However, the unemployment rate did drop to 4.8%, down from 5.2%.

Looking ahead the US economic calendar has some important events this week with the release of the consumer price index (CPI) and the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.