inr-currency-symbol - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) edges higher despite inflation falling
  • Retail inflation declines to 5.59%
  • US Dollar (USD) slips but set to end the week flat
  • US Michigan consumer confidence due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is ticking a few pips lower after booking small gains in the previous session. The pair settled +0.08% higher on Wednesday at 74.31. At 14:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.02% lower at 74.29.

India’s retail inflation cooled in July after pushing above 6% for two consecutive months. Inflation eased as supplies improved amid the easing of pandemic restrictions. Consumer prices rose 5.59% in July compared to the same month last year, which was below the 5.78% that a Reuters poll had forecast.

The Reserve Bank of India kept its interest rate on hold at record lows in its latest meeting. However, it did raise its inflation forecast suggesting that policy makers could be heading closer towards tightening monetary stimulus.

Food inflation which accounts for nearly half of the inflation basket rose 3.96%, down from 5.15% in the previous month.

The US Dollar is trading lower across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades -0.24% at 92.79 paring gains from the previous session. The US Dollar is set to finish the week flat.

The US Dollar finished higher on Thursday following data which revealed a stronger than forecast rise in wholesale inflation. PPI posted their largest annual increase in over a decade in July. The data came a day after weaker than forecast consumer price inflation suggested that CPI could be peaking.

However, PPI often feed through to CPI, in which case CPI may not have reached a ceiling. As a result, markets once again priced in a sooner move by the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

Attention will now turn to Michigan consumer confidence which is due to be released shortly. Analysts are expecting morale to remain steady in August at 81.2 as a strong jobs market competes with rising covid cases.