Home INR USD/INR: Rupee Rises On USD Weakness, Despite Fed’s Taper Talk

USD/INR: Rupee Rises On USD Weakness, Despite Fed’s Taper Talk

20th May 2021

Indian Rupee (INR) rises despite equity markets selling off
Unemployment jumps to 14.5%
US Dollar (USD) declines despite the Fed being ready to start taper talk
US jobless claims awaited

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is slipping lower on Thursday, paring some gains from the previous session. The pair settled +0.22% higher on Wednesday at 73.21 after briefly dipping below 73.00 again. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.14% lower at 73.10.

The rupee is advancing despite a lower close in domestic equity markets. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 closed 0.7% lower held back by weakness in metal stocks.

Oil prices are trending lower for a third straight session amid rumours of progress in Iran US nuclear talks. West Texas Intermediate trades -1.2% at $62.50.

Unemployment shot higher in India. The unemployment rate hit 14.5% in the week ending May 16^th, the highest level in a year and up considerably from April’s 8% reading. The last time the rate was as elevated was in April and May last year in the first covid wave and lockdown when unemployment surged to over 23%.

The second covid wave and lockdown restrictions in some areas has hit businesses raising unemployment levels.

The US Dollar is trading lower across the board on Thursday. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades -0.16% at the time of writing at 90.05 around multi-month lows.

The US Dollar is trading lower paring gains from the previous session. The minutes to the April Federal Reserve meeting revealed that some policy members were ready to start discussing tapering asset purchases in the coming months. This slight change of tone from the Fed boosted expectations that the Fed could move on interest rates sooner, lifting the US Dollar.

Today, those expectations have eased and the greenback is slipping lower. Attention is now turning to the US jobless claims due later today. Expectations are for jobless claims to decline again to 450,000 new claims down from 473,000 last week, the lowest level post pandemic.