• Indian Rupee (INR) slips on stronger USD
  • Morgan Stanley raises India’s GDP forecast
  • US Dollar (USD) rises after stellar US retail sales
  • FOMC minutes in focus

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is edging higher for a third straight session, although momentum is slowing. The pair gained +0.3% on Tuesday, settling at 72.86. At 14:15 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.02% at 72.87.

The Rupee is showing resilience versus a stronger US Dollar after investment bank Morgan Stanley raised India’s GDP growth forecasts for FY2022 and FY 2023.

The Investment bank considers that the Indian economy is at an inflection point which marks the beginning of a new growth cycle. Analyst at the bank upwardly revised the Indian GDP for F22 to 12.1%, up from 10.1% previously. For F23, the ban revised the GDP higher to 6.7% up from 6.2%.

Morgan Stanley added that they expected policy rate hikes as from the fourth quarter of 2021 onwards.

However the bank also pointed out that risks remain, such as a resurgence of covid cases or the mutation in the virus, in addition to issues with the efficacy or distribution of the vaccine.

The US Dollar is charging higher across the board as investors continue to price in a strong US economic recovery.

US retail sales surged in January +5.3% month on month in January after falling -1% in December. Analysts had been expecting a rise of 1%. The big jump in comes as millions of consumer received $600 stimulus checks. Spending gains were broad based, with all categories recording gains. The data will raise inflation expectations, boosting expectations of tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Attention will now turn to the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Investors will pour over the minutes for any clues over the Fed’s next steps.