• Indian Rupee (INR) declines after Budget announcement
  • Current fiscal deficit expected to rise to 9.5%
  • US Dollar (USD) rises on safe haven inflows
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI due later

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is trending northwards at the start of the new week, paring losses from the previous week. The pair shed -0.15% across last week settling at 72.87 At 12:15 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.3% at 73.09.

The Indian Rupee is trading lower despite a surge in equities after the Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the budget for fiscal year 2021-21. The budget aims to shore up the badly hit Indian economy following the pandemic hit.

The Indian economy is projected to contract 7.7% in the current fiscal year, although growth of 11% is forecast for the coming year amid a huge vaccination drive and a rebound in consumer demand and investments.

India’s blue chip Nifty 50 index recorded its best budget day performance in over 20 years thanks to the proposed measures to revive the pandemic hit economy. The budget purposes and doubling of healthcare spending, a vehicle scrappage policy and recapitalisation of public sector banks.

The benchmark 10 year bond yield closed up 13 basis points at 6.08% whilst the rupee weakened to 73.02 after Sitharaman said that the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year would likely rise to 9.5% compared to the previous budget estimate of 3.5%. He added that he government would likely borrow a further 800 billion rupee from the market by the end of March.

The US dollar is advancing against the Rupee and also versus its major peers. The US Dollar index trades +0.3% higher at the time of writing, adding to gains from the previous week amid rising concerns that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill will struggle to make it through Congress as a group of 10 Republicans senators urged for a scaled down proposal.

Attention will now turn to US ISM manufacturing data. Analysts are expecting the PMI to remain elevated at 59.1 in January’s final reading.