• Indian Rupee (INR) rebounds as the Reserve Bank of Indian begins 3-day policy meeting
  • No rate cut is expected given the high inflation levels
  • US Dollar (USD) broadly higher as Trump ends fiscal stimulus talks
  • FOMC minutes in focus

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is slipping lower on Wednesday, paring gains from the previous session. The pair settled +0.4% higher on Tuesday at 73.43. At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.2% at 73.30. This is towards the lower end of the daily traded range.

The newly formed Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India has begun its three-day monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to give its monetary policy announcement on Friday.

The meeting had initially been postponed last week after the appointment of three of the MPC members was delayed. The MPC must be a minimum of 4. The government has now appointed 3 more MPC members taking the total to 6 committee members.

The central bank is not expected to cut interest rates given rising inflation in India as reflected in the Consumer Price Index. Rising inflation is being driven by mainly supply-side issues. Analyst believe that the central bank should remain accommodative in light of the damaged that covid has inflicted on the economy. Expectations are that the central bank could cut interest rates by a further 25 -50 basis points in FY21.

The US Dollar is trading broadly higher versus its major peers after President Trump called an end to fiscal stimulus talks until after the Presidential elections in just under a month’s time. His announcement sparked a risk off mood in the market with US stocks falling lower and the safe haven US Dollar rising.

Since then the mood has calmed, this is of course just a delay rather than the end of talks. Both Biden and Trump have said they support fiscal stimulus, which is good news for the US economy.

Attention will now turn to the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.