- German retail sales -0.9% mom in July after -1.8% in June
- Data comes after Eurozone & German inflation turned negative
- US Dollar rallies as manufacturing data boosted hopes of a stronger economic rebound
- US ADP private payroll report up next – 950,000 new hires forecast
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trending lower for a second consecutive session. After piercing US$1.20 a two year high in the previous session, the pair retreated, settling -0.2% at US$1.1910. At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD traded -0.35% at US$1.1867.
The Euro is under pressure as German retail sales unexpectedly fell again in July, dashing hopes of a strong recovery. Sales slipped -0.9% month on month in July adding to a -1.6% decline in June. The data has dampened hopes that consumer spending in the Eurozone’s largest economy would drive a strong recovery following the coronavirus pandemic.
The data comes after German and Eurozone inflation also unexpectedly turned negative last month. Consumer prices declined -0.2% month on month against expectations of a +0.4% rise. Recent data is raising questions over the stability of the economic recovery in not only the Eurozone’s largest economy but also across the bloc as a whole.
After weak consumer prices revealed in the previous session, attention will now turn to producer price data which measures the level of inflation at wholesale level. Analysts expect a 0.5% rise after a 0.7% rise last month. A strong reading could boost the Euro as it points to stronger consumer prices later down the line.
The US Dollar has strengthened amid optimism surrounding the economic recovery in the US. ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 56, up from 54.2, hitting the highest level since January.
Attention will now turn to US ADP employment data and could lift the US Dollar further. Expectations are for 950,000 new job hires in the private sector versus just 167,000 in the previous month. A strong number will add to optimism surrounding the economic recovery following upbeat US manufacturing sector data. However, any disappointment could not only drag on sentiment but also pull the USD to multi year lows.
