inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) pares some of last weeks’ gains amid renewed Indian -China border tensions
  • Indian GDP expected to show -20% contraction in April – June quarter
  • US Dollar (USD) falls for 4th consecutive month
  • Fed speaks on the radar today, ahead of a busy week of releases

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rebounding on Monday after steep falls across the previous week. The pair declined by over 2% lower last week on broad US Dollar weakness. At 09:30 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.5% at 73.54. This is towards the upper end of the daily traded range.

The Rupee is under pressure, retreating from a 6 month high amid reports of fresh India / Chinese tensions.

Reports have surfaced of renewed attempts by Chinese troops to change the status quo on their ill-defined boarder in the Himalayas. The two nuclear powers experienced troubles on the same border zone just last month.

Adding pressure to the Rupee is also local month end dollar demand from importers. Some analysts expect the Rupee to decline to 73.80 in the absence of any central bank intervention.

Investors will no look ahead to the release of the Indian GDP for the April – June quarter. Analysts are expecting a 20% GDP contraction in the quarter a historic low compared to a 3.1% GDP growth the previous quarter.

Sectors such as manufacturing, construction, trade, hotels transport and communication sectors are expected to be the worst hit in the three-month period which also saw the strictest coronavirus lockdown. The Indian economy took the biggest hit in April and then is expected to have seen a slow recovery in May and June.

The US Dollar is advancing across the board although is still on track for its worst August performance in 5 years. The US Dollar is also declining for its fourth straight month. Concerns over the US economic recovery, a lack of an additional rescue package from Congress and a shift in policy framework by the Fed have all contributed to pulling the US Dollar lower.

There is no high impacting US economic data today. Instead attention will be on Fed speakers. The rest of the week is busy with US economic macro data points culminating in the release of the US non-farm payroll.