- Euro (EUR) trades around weekly high
- German consumer confidence declines as covid numbers rise and lockdown fears linger
- US Dollar (USD) drops after Federal reserve announces policy to allow inflation to run above target
- US PCE and consumer confidence data in focus
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is being propelled higher by US Dollar weakness. After a volatile session on Thursday, the pair finally settled almost flat at US$1.1821.
At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades +0.6% at US$1.1880, as it targets the weekly high of US$1.19 reached in the previous session.
The Euro is advancing despite weak German consumer confidence data. According to GFK, German consumer morale is expected to suffer a significant drop in September, following gains over the past three months.
The forward looking GFK consumer confidence index fell -1.8 points in September, from a revised -0.2 in August. Thee figures suggest that a strong recovery in the consumer climate is looking increasingly unlikely. With coronavirus numbers increasing and fears of covid restrictions being tightened, a climate of uncertainty is growing, dampening sentiment.
Whether or not this is just a temporary decline in sentiment remains to be seen and depends largely on how containment of the virus plays out over the coming weeks and months.
Attention will now turn to Eurozone consumer and business sentiment which could show some signs of improving.
The US Dollar is slumping again on Friday, after seeing a rebound in the previous session fade. Thursday was a volatile day after the US Federal Reserve announced a shift in policy. The central bank will adopt a softer approach towards inflation, basically allowing rates to remain low for longer. However, the Fed’s policy shift failed to outline how it was going to achieve the new policy.
US data will be in focus across the US session. Inflation, as measured by PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation are due along with the final reading of consumer sentiment for the month.
Broadly speaking recent US data has been mixed as the coronavirus resurgence over the summer months is starting to show through in the data.
