- Chinese inflation rises for second consecutive month and factory deflation slows boosting hopes of a solid economic recovery and lifting risk sentiment
- Rising oil prices on improved demand outlook keep gains in the Indian Rupee (INR) capped
- US Dollar (USD) trades higher versus major peers after strong jobs report
- Trump backstops additional unemployment benefits amid gridlock in Congress
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) is edging lower in early trade on Monday, paring gains from the previous week. The pair settled on Friday at 75.02, after gaining 0.14% across the week as a whole. At 10:15 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.14% at 74.91 as the pair remains within the familiar range of 74.50 – 75.50.
The Indian Rupee is being supported by an upbeat mood in the market following encouraging Chinese data. According to official data Chinese inflation, as measured by consumer prices, increased 2.7% in July compared to last year, up from 2.5% gains in June. Adding to the upbeat mood Chinese factory deflation eased in July.
These data points added to mounting evidence that the economic recovery in China is gaining momentum, lifting risk sentiment and boosting demand for Indian stocks and the Rupee.
Rising oil prices are keeping gains in the Rupee in check. West Texas Intermediate has jumped 1.7% in early trade on Monday following strong US and Chinese data and bullish comments regarding global demand from Saudi Aramco, the largest oil producer in the world.
The US Dollar trades lower versus the Rupee although it trades broadly higher versus its major peers following a stronger than forecast US jobs data on Friday and after Trump stepped in on the Congress fiscal stimulus impasse.
Friday’s non-farm payroll report revealed that 1.7 million jobs were added in July, slightly ahead of 1.5 million jobs forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 10.2%, whilst hours worked increased.
The US Dollar had been under pressure over the past month amid fears that rising covid cases in US were hampering the economic recovery. Friday’s data helped ease those concerns, at least for now.
US Congress remains in deadlock over US fiscal stimulus package. As a result, President Trump stepped in over the weekend and signed executive orders to backstop unemployment benefits which had expired at the end of July, cut income taxes in addition to other measures. These measures are keeping investors content for now. However broader measures will need to be put in place to keep the market happy longer term.
