Euro Lower Versus Sterling as German Record-Breaking Figures Could Cause Embarrassment
  • German exports jumped 14.9% in June vs 14.4% forecast
  • Data follows strong German factory orders on Thursday pointing to Germany’s economic recovery gathering pace
  • US Dollar (USD) surges on safe haven flows as Trump bans Chinese apps TikTik and WeChat
  • US non farm payrolls to expected to show 1.5 million jobs created in July

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is ticking lower on Friday, snapping three straight days of gains. The pair settled on Thursday +0.1% at US$1.1876 after hitting a fresh multi year high of US$1.1917 earlier in the session.

At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades -0.3% at US$1.1843, this is up from the low of the day of US$1.1819. Despite today’s losses, the pair is still on track for gains in the region of +0.6% across the week, in what is set to be the seventh straight week of gains.

The US Dollar is surging higher on the final day of the trading week on safe haven flows. President Trump is ratcheting up tension with Beijing by taking aim at Chinese tech stock. Trump has given US companies 45 days to stop dealings with popular Chinese apps ByDance’s TikTok and Tencent’s WeChat. This is the latest move by the White House in an increasingly broad campaign against China, which is dragging on sentiment.

Attention will now turn towards US non-farm payroll data. Analysts are expecting 1.5 million new jobs to have been created in the US last month. This is down significantly from June’s 4.8 million jobs.

Lead indicators this week from the ADP payroll report and the employment subcomponent of the ISM non-manufacturing report have disappointed, suggesting that the recovery in the US labour market is stalling, hampered by a resurgence in coronavirus cases since mid-June.

The Euro has picked up off session lows following encouraging data from Germany, which is going someway to off-setting the Trump inspired downbeat mood. German exports rose in June for a second straight month. Exports rose by a solid 14.9%, whilst imports jumped 7%.

The data adds to mounting evidence that the economic recovery in Germany is on a solid footing and comes following factory orders data yesterday which smashed expectations.