• Indian Rupee (INR) shows resilience as IHS Markit PMI’s point to an pick up in economic activity in June
  • Indian economy expected to rebound with 6.7% economic growth in the coming financial year
  • US Dollar (USD) advances versus major peers as rising US – Chinese tensions boost risk aversion
  • US PMI data could help restore risk sentiment, analysts expect US service sector and manufacturing sector activity to return to growth

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is holding steady on Friday after two straight days of gains. The pair settled on Thursday +0.3% at 74.81. At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR trades at the same level 74.81

The Indian Rupee is showing resilience after upbeat comments from IHS Markit, which said that the Indian economy should rebound in the second half of 2020 as the coronavirus crisis eases.

The coronavirus pandemic, which saw 49,000 new daily cases over the past 24 hours has resulted in severe disruption in industrial production and consumption spending.

IHS Markit warned that they expect to see a deep downturn in the April – June quarter of 2020, with a GDP contraction of -6.3% across the fiscal year 2020 -21. However, a rebound is expected with growth projections of 6.7% the following financial year.

The IHS purchasing market index showed that economic momentum improved in June, reflecting the easing of lockdown measures in May and June, providing some optimism surrounding the Indian economy.

The US Dollar is trading mildly higher boosted by risk aversion as US – Chinese relations deteriorate further. China has ordered the closure of the US consulate in Chengdu in response to Trump closing the Chinese consulate in Houston. The big fear here is that the Phase 1 trade deal agreement could collapse.

Investors will now look ahead to the release of US preliminary PMI data for July. Analysts are expecting the index to print above 50 indicating expansion for both the service sector and the manufacturing sector.

An upbeat reading could go some way to calming nerves after data yesterday showed that the US labour market recovery was stalling. The number of people signing up for unemployment benefits increased by 1.4 million, up from 1.3 million last week. This was the first weekly increase in initial claims since March and comes as part of California and the sunbelt go back into lockdown to stem the spread of the virus.


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