- Rupee resilient even after Fitch revises Indian outlook to negative
- Indian – Chinese tensions remain elevated and second wave fears linger
- US jobless claims to show a very slow improvement to US labour market
- US Dollar Indian Rupee exchange rate (USD/INR) remains over 76.00
After two days of decline, the Indian Rupee (INR) is attempting to claw back some lost ground versus the US Dollar. The Indian Rupee lost -0.4% versus the greenback across Tuesday and Wednesday.
At 10:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.2% at 76.11, easing back from a 7-week high of 76.35 reached in the previous session.
A slightly weaker US Dollar is offering support to the Rupee despite risks lingering over a second wave of coronavirus infections and geopolitical tensions with China.
The Rupee is even managing to brush off a sovereign credit outlook downgrade from international rating against Fitch. Fitch cut its outlook for India to “negative” from “stable” and forecast a 5% contraction in growth in the coming fiscal year. Fitch highlighted the heavy toll that the coronavirus pandemic was having on the Indian economy.
The rating agency said that the pandemic had significantly weakened India’s outlook and that it had exposed challenges associated with high debt burden. Fitch maintained its rating at BBB- the lowest investment grade.
The move by Fitch comes after Moody’s downgraded India earlier in the month to just a notch above junk.
The US Dollar is trading broadly lower versus its peers and is range bound as investors await the next catalyst. Attention will now turn to US jobless claims data later today. Analysts are expecting 1.3 million more Americans to have claimed unemployment benefit, down marginally from 1.5 million the previous month. This would still be 6 times higher than the pre-coronavirus level in February. I would also bring the total to 45 million over the past 3 months. A truly horrifying figure.
Continuing claims will now become increasingly more important. Continuing claims fall as more Americans are hired. As states ease lockdown measures and start to reopen, this number should decline.
So far the decline has been frustratingly slow. Continuing claims are expected to edge lower to 19.8 million, down from 20.9 million last week. A stronger reading could boost expectations of a quicker economic rebound, lifting sentiment whilst dragging the US Dollar lower.
