• UK GDP April expected -18.4% v -5.8% in March
  • Brexit still weighing on Pound
  • Eurozone industrial production coming up
  • At 05:15 UTC, Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) trades -0.1% at €1.1136

The Pound is once again heading lower on Friday, for a fourth consecutive session. The Pound Euro exchange rate settled on Thursday -0.5% at €1.1150, off the session low of €1.1093. The pair is on track to lose 0.8% across this week, paring gains from the previous week.

At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.1% at €1.1136 as investors look ahead to UK GDP data.

Today’s GDP reading will depict the impact that the first full month of lockdown had on the UK economy. Analysts are expecting the economy shrank -18.4% in April, a record-breaking month and down from the -5.8% contraction in March. This forecast will contain a larger than usual element of guess work in these highly uncertain times. However, this data will also help market participants have a better understanding of the UK economy moving forward.

A strong beat could see the Pound advance, whilst an even bigger decline could add further pressure to sterling.

Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the Pound, as the UK and the EU remain at odds over a post Brexit trade deal. The accusation from Michel Barnier earlier this week that the UK wants all the benefits of full membership without any obligations shows just how far apart the two sides remain. Frustrations are growing on both sides.

The Eurozone macro-economic calendar has had little to offer, with few high impacting data releases in the latter part of the week. The Euro was broadly under pressure in the previous session, albeit less so than the Pound, amid risk off trading.

A cautious tone from Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, coupled with fears of a second coronavirus wave pulled risk sentiment sharply lower.

Today, investors will look ahead to the release of Eurozone industrial production data. Analysts are expecting industrial output to have tanked by -20% month on month in April, down from -11.5%. On an annual basis industrial production is expected to decline -29.5%, down from -12.9%. Weak figures could weigh on the Euro into the weekend.