indian-rupee-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) shrugs off first downgrade from Moody’s in 22 years
  • Risk on sentiment boosts Rupee and Sensex closes 1.5% higher
  • US Dollar slips as investors continue to shrug off US riots
  • At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.5% at 75.11

The India Rupee is extending gains versus the broadly weaker US Dollar for a fourth straight session on Tuesday. The Rupee settled 0.1% higher against the greenback in the previous session at 75.50.

At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.5% at 75.11. This is towards the lower end of the daily traded range of 75.09 – 75.61 as a positive mood in the broader markets helped offset a ratings downgrade by Moody’s.

International rating agency Moody’s investors services downgrading India’s sovereign rating for the first time since 1998. Moody’s cut the rating to the lowest investment grade as Pakistan’s growth prospects deteriorate amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis.

The lockdown, which was imposed to stem the spread of covid-19 paralysed the Indian economy, reducing revenues sharply, forcing the government to increase market borrowing. Economists say that this will widen the fiscal deficit to around 5.5% of GDP.

Whilst the Rupee has shrugged off the downgrade from Moody’s today, it could weigh on demand going forward as it raises borrowing costs and dampens sentiment.

Instead the Rupee is driving higher owing to a broad risk on climate in the financial markets as economies across the globe reopen. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 both rose to end the day 1.5% higher.

Rising risk appetite has weighed on demand for the safe haven US Dollar across the past few session. Investors who bought into the US Dollar for its safe haven properties as coronavirus infection numbers and recession fears were on the rise, are now rotating out of the greenback as fears ease.

Sentiment, however, remains fragile. Investors will continue monitoring the civil unrest unfolding in America, following the death of George Floyd whilst being arrested by police in Minneapolis. So far, the markets have broadly shrugged off the protests and riots. However, increasingly violent protests and a threat by President Trump to bring in the military could unnerve investors and drive flows into the safe haven greenback.

There is no high impacting US data today, leaving sentiment to drive movement. Investors will also start to look ahead to Friday’s non-farm payroll for further details on the impact of the pandemic on the US labour market.


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