GBP/EUR: Euro Drops vs. The Pound On Cautious ECB Tone
  • EUR (Euro) supported by €750 billion rescue fund announcement
  • German inflation expected -0.1% mom and +0.6% yoy
  • Safe Haven USD (US Dollar) slips despite elevated US – Chino tensions over Hong Kong
  • At 08:15 UTC, EUR/USD is trading +0.1% at US$1.1007 >> Real time exchange rate

The Euro is gaining ground versus the US Dollar for a third straight session on Thursday. The Euro US Dollar exchange rate settled +0.2% above US$1.10 following the announcement of the European Commission’s rescue fund.

At 08:15 UTC, EUR/USD is trading +0.1% at US$1.1007, having eased back from a 2 month high US$1.1035 reached earlier in the session.

The Euro is clinging n to gains after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a $750 billion rescue fund in the previous session. The fund combines proposals from the French – German agreement and proposals from the “frugal four” -Sweden, Netherlands, Austria and Denmark. Importantly it will include raising €500 billion in joint European debt, which marks an important shift in policy towards financial integration. The package still needs to be agreed by all member states.

Euro investors will now look ahead to Eurozone consumer confidence data and German inflation numbers. Analysts are expecting German inflation to fall -0.1% month on month in May. This would be down from an 0.4% increase. On an annual basis inflation in Europe’s largest economy is expected to continue falling, to just +0.6%, down from +0.9%. This is a long way from the central banks’ 2% target and could prompt further action from the European Central Bank when they meet next week.

The safe haven US Dollar as trading lower across the board on Thursday, despite tensions between US and China remaining elevated. Last night US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the US no longer recognises Hong Kong as autonomous from China. This was the biggest hint yet that the financial hub could lose its special trade status with the US.

Investors will now look ahead to a barrage of US data later in the session. The most closely eyed releases will be US Q1 GDP, Durable goods and Initial jobless claims. Expectations are grim.

Analysts forecast that the US economy contracted by -4.8% on an annualised basis in the first three months of the year. Durable goods are forecast to have declined by a record 19.1% in April. Meanwhile jobless claims are expected to remain stubbornly over 2 million.


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