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The Indian Rupee is trading mildly lower after two straight of gains versus the US Dollar. The Indian Rupee settled +0.07% at 75.64 on Tuesday.

At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR is trading +0.03% higher at 75.66. This is towards the lower end of the daily traded range of 75.55 – 75.86. The pair continues to trade within the range of 74.5 – 77 the all-time low, a range that has been in place since the coronavirus outbreak mid-March.

INR: Rating Agencies Talk Down Modi’s Rescue Package

The Indian Rupee advanced across the start of the week on improved risk sentiment thanks to encouraging vaccine headlines. The risk rally saw investors snatching up riskier assets and currencies such as the Indian Rupee in place of safe havens such as the US Dollar.

However, mid-week and the mood in the market is seesawing and disappointment from the Indian government’s budget as well as its recent rescue package are weighing on demand for the Rupee.

Domestically the Rupee is under pressure after domestic rating agency Cresil talked down the expected impact of the government’s recently announced $266 billion rescue package. The rating agency said that the package is unlikely to stimulate demand as it is focused on supply side.

International rating agency Fitch also criticised the package saying it fails to address the immediate concerns of the economy. The rating agency expects the actual fiscal impact of the stimulus package to be only around 1% of GDP compared to claims of 10%

USD: FOMC Minutes In Focus

US Dollar investors will now look ahead to the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. This was the April 28/29 meeting where no policy action was taken, as expected.

The minutes will be closely analysed for any clues as to possible policy tool changes that the Federal Reserve could be considering. Negative interest rate speculation has attracted a lot of media attention over the past week. Whilst the Fed has been pushing back against adopting such a policy, any positive mention of negative rates at the meeting could weigh on the value of the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made several appearances so far this week on TV and before the Senate banking committee. Therefore, the minutes from the FOMC are unlikely to reveal anything new.


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