The Indian Rupee is trending higher on Tuesday, paring losses from the start of the week. Indian Rupee settled on Monday -0.47% lower at 75.88.
At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading -0.7% at 75.38. This is at the lower end of the daily traded range of 75.38 – 75.69 amid signs of the Indian economy coming back to life post lockdown.
INR: Consumer Spending Rises In Green & Orange Zones
The Indian Rupee is strengthening as the economy starts to wake up after the extended lock down period. Despite the number of new covid-19 infections rising, businesses are starting to reopen and consumer demand is returning.
According to a survey by Bain & Company and Price there are signs of consumer spending picking up across all sectors, led by consumers in green and orange zones; zones where lockdown restrictions have been eased, potentially reflecting some pent up demand.
The encouraging data comes after the consumer survey showed significant declines in sentiment across the month of April as income loss and uncertainty over future income resulted in consumers reining in their spending. Although the survey noted that red zones, where lockdown measures remain strict continue to see a contraction in spending with consumers pessimistic about returning to financial normalcy.
USD: US Inflation Data Up Next
The US Dollar is trading lower ahead of US inflation data release later today. Analyst are expecting inflation, as measured by the consumer price index to drop steeply as Americans spend considerably less. Demand for goods is falling because of lockdown measures, self-isolation or reduced spending amid financial and job insecurity. Significantly lower demand has dragged prices down. A 60% fall in oil prices has also dragged inflation lower.
Analysts are expecting a -0.8% month on month decline in April after a -0.4% drop in March. This would be the largest monthly decline in inflation since the Financial crisis when inflation tanked -0.9% in October 2008. On an annual basis inflation is expected to print at 0.4%, well short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
A weak reading could drag the US Dollar lower, potentially raising fears of negative interest rates in the US.
